Pathway to Violence

Active Shooters don’t ‘snap’. They plan. It is generally believed that persons intending to commit an act(s) of violence follow a path with identified steps on the way to engaging in their violent event. Understanding the pathway to violence allows us to observe telltale behaviors that may assist in assessing where that person of interest is, along the pathway to violence, the credibility of the threat and the imminence of a potential attack.

Progress along the pathway may be slow or fast and does not always follow the same path with each Person of Concern (POC). A POC may move forward or backward along the pathway. The pathway is not absolute. It varies with each individual. It does provide a framework for Behavioral Threat Assessment, and determining a course of action. =

Grievance is the first step on the Pathway to Violence. This may be a perceived or actual wrong that the Person of Concern has experienced. Bullying, a demotion or layoff at work, a caregiver who believes that their loved one who is a patient is not getting the care they need as quickly as they need it, all of these and more can be the grievance that drives the POC.

Ideation - When the POC cannot resolve their negative emotions or achieve justice they believe is deserved, they may progress to the idea that violence is the acceptable, or perhaps the ONLY way to achieve satisfaction. The POC in this stage comes to the ideation that their life is no longer worth living, and that violence is the only means of redress. When they reach this state, they may actually experience a sense of relief, so that a sudden change from being an angry, depressed or menacing POC, should not be presumed to be good.

Research and Planning - When the POC determines that violence is their only option, they begin to think about their plan and start researching methods, processes and resources needed to enact their violent intent.

Preparation - In preparation of the attack, the POC may acquire equipment, skills and/or any other resources to conduct the attack. They may conduct actual or virtual rehearsals of any of the aspects of their planned attack.

Breach - In this step, the POC is researching and testing the security at the target location. This may include dry runs to evaluate timing of the attack and security response; approach behaviors and stalking.

Attack - The attack my involve both or either pre-planned and opportunistically chosen targets.

A skilled Behavioral Threat Assessment Team is vital to assessing where the POC is along the Pathway to Violence, the credibility and the imminence of the threat, most importantly, the appropriate intervention, response and management of the threat and the Person of Concern.